Imagine, for example, that one day experts decipher the basic laws of the economy. The more we know, the less we can predict. Hence paradoxically, as we accumulate more data and increase our computing power, events become wilder and more unexpected. Indeed, the better our forecasts, the more reactions they engender. The process of human development, in contrast, reacts to them. Some complex systems, such as the weather, are oblivious to our predictions. What’s the point of making predictions if they cannot change anything? If the discussion makes us choose differently, so that the prediction is proven wrong, all the better. It does not follow that in 2100 humans will be immortal.įourthly, and most importantly, this prediction is less of a prophecy and more a way of discussing our present choices. Our future economy, society and politics will be shaped by the attempt to overcome death. My prediction is focused on what humankind will try to achieve in the twenty-first century – not what it will succeed in achieving. Twentieth-century Russian history was largely shaped by the communist attempt to overcome inequality, but it didn’t succeed. History is often shaped by exaggerated hopes. Thirdly, reaching out is not the same as obtaining. Given our past record and our current values, we are likely to reach out for bliss, divinity and immortality – even if it kills us. Adopting these particular projects might be a big mistake. Even if we disregard the fate of slum-dwellers, it is far from clear that we should be aiming at immortality, bliss and divinity. Secondly, this is a historical prediction, not a political manifesto. Those living in palaces have always had different agendas to those living in shacks, and that is unlikely to change in the twenty-first century. Only once the last sword is beaten into a ploughshare should we turn our minds to the next big thing. One could argue that as long as there is a single child dying from malnutrition or a single adult killed in drug-lord warfare, humankind should focus all its efforts on combating these woes. Even if famine, plague and war become less prevalent, billions of humans in developing countries and seedy neighbourhoods will continue to deal with poverty, illness and violence even as the elites are already reaching for eternal youth and godlike powers. Most people will probably play only a minor role, if any, in these projects. It is what humankind as a collective will do. The prediction that in the twenty-first century humankind is likely to aim for immortality, bliss and divinity may anger, alienate or frighten any number of people, so a few clarifications are in order.įirstly, this is not what most individuals will actually do in the twenty-first century. Precisely because we have some choice regarding the use of new technologies, we had better understand what is happening and make up our minds about it before it makes up our minds for us. It is vital to think about humanity’s new agenda. – Aleksi Neuvonen, co-founder, Demos Helsinki Therefore we are proud to publish (by courtesy of Penguin Random House) the following section from Yuval Noah Harari’s book Homo Deus, in which he describes the dynamism of the current historical transformation. There is plenty of resemblance between The Next Era and Harari’s thoughts. In that quest our capabilities for imagination and collaboration are bound to become the increasingly defining characteristics of our species. Harari suggests that the next quest for humankind is to reach immortality and to become ‘Homo Deus’, human god. Therefore, humankind needs to discover new goals: ones beyond those of humanism and the ideals that place the human individual at the core of our world view and value system. Meanwhile, technology is making a great part of human labour redundant. Quality of life and well-being have reached unforeseen levels. In his riveting, blockbuster books Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (which recently hit the one-million-copies-sold mark) and Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Harari presents a compelling and visionary theory on the evolution of our species.Īccording to Harari, humankind has reached a turning point because of the great technological progress that has taken place in the past few generations. Over the past few years, historian and author Yuval Noah Harari has become probably the most renowned thinker developing a new concept of the progress of the post-industrial era.
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